Florence Gaub, Außenminister Johann Wadephul und Hamburger Zukunftsforschern "SZENARIO. Die Zukunft steht auf dem Spiel" x Harbour Front Literaturfestival Hamburg

Rarely has the mood been so low. The vast majority are consumed by anxiety about the future: fear of social decline, fear of the collapse of the social order as we know it, fear of war and peace—fears about the future.

How does one, as a citizen, confront such fears? How does one, as the incumbent German foreign minister—who, like all politicians, is supposed to “ward off harm from the people” and shape the future—confront them? We can look forward to the first public meeting between the futurist and the foreign minister.

How can we counter the exhausting catastrophism of our times? Are there any antidotes?

YES, says Florence Gaub. She is firmly convinced that the future is not a fate that befalls us, but rather that it can be shaped and even strategically planned—even though (!) it is full of unknowns. This applies to individuals as well as to society as a whole. How can that be?
Florence Gaub—who is in high demand by politicians and the media across Europe—is by no means a feel-good optimist, nor is she a shaman; on the contrary: this extraordinary woman is a futurist, political advisor, and director at NATO in Rome. She refuses to accept that we experience the future as a dark fate; she believes that we can shape the future rationally—every single person and society as a whole.

Florence Gaub (“The Future Is No Accident”) asks the crucial questions: How can we recognize the right path? What are its consequences? How do we deal with mistakes? How do we learn? How do we avoid detours and wrong turns into the future? And how do we face them?

The highlight: Florence Gaub will perform her “scenario” publicly for the first time as part of the opening program of the Harbour Front Literature Festival. And: the evening is actually a game she plays—the opposite of a traditional book presentation. The audience participates in the performance. Their roles: futurists, political advisors. An evening that will never happen again—neither before nor after. A true premiere! With risk!

The specific scenario: In the geopolitically significant Arctic region, a shipwreck occurs in the sci-fi year 2030. Why? Is the U.S. still the main player in world politics? Or have the balance of power shifted long ago? This seemingly minor event is the starting point for a mystery set in the future.

With audience participation, strategies for navigating the future will be explored. The entire audience can participate and help make decisions.

Florence Gaubis a political scientist, military strategist, and futurist. Since 2023, she has headed the research department at the NATO Defense College in Rome; previously, she was deputy director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris. Gaub advises governments and international organizations on future scenarios and trend analyses. Her books *The Future: A User’s Guide* and *Scenario: The Future Is at Stake* combine strategic foresight with the question of how political action remains possible amid uncertainty.

Johann Wadephulhas served as Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs since May 6, 2025. A doctor of law, he has been a member of the German Bundestag since 2009. From 2018 to 2025, he served as deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, responsible for foreign and defense policy, European security and defense policy, and the Council of Europe. Prior to his work in federal politics, Wadephul served as a member of the Schleswig-Holstein State Parliament and as chairman of the CDU parliamentary group there.